UAEU.S. Treasury expanded long-end bond buybacks begin
The U.S. Department of the Treasury is set to begin larger-than-scheduled buybacks of long-dated government bonds in November 2026. The event is tied to Bitcoin (BTC) because some market commentators view the program as an indirect source of dollar liquidity.
What is happening
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Treasury buybacks will exceed the previously scheduled amounts, with the expansion starting next month. The long-end total for the coming fiscal quarter has been raised by $20 billion. The exact start day within November has not been specified.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, commented on the move in a Substack essay. He argues that Treasury interventions in the bond market can work as a form of indirect "money printing," because they return liquidity to financial markets. He also notes that Bessent and former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have both been concerned about the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5%.
Hayes calls the $20 billion increase "paltry" against a total debt stock of about $40 trillion and says it is not yet large enough to materially suppress long-term yields. He expects buybacks to grow gradually, in "drips and drabs," unless bond market stress intensifies. He named a MOVE Index reading above 130 as a possible sign that more aggressive intervention would be needed. His preferred scenario would be a policy resembling the Bank of Japan's yield control, with the Treasury signaling unlimited purchases of 10-year and longer bonds whenever yields rise above 5%.
Why it matters
Long-term Treasury yields serve as a benchmark for mortgages, corporate borrowing and other financial products, so shifts in the bond market can influence broader risk appetite. Hayes's view is that extra dollar liquidity from buybacks could support risk assets, including Bitcoin. This is his interpretation, and the scale and effect of the program remain open questions.
For holders and traders, the points to follow are the size of subsequent buyback announcements, the level of the 10-year yield relative to 5%, and bond market volatility indicators such as the MOVE Index. According to the source, Bitcoin rose more than 23% over the week following the buyback announcement and briefly touched $80,000 before retreating. Hayes also disclosed that Maelstrom holds positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethena and Ether.fi, which should be kept in mind when weighing his commentary.
Key details
- Date: November 2026 (month precision; exact day not specified)
- Project: U.S. Department of the Treasury
- Coins: BTC
- Category: Macro Event
- Status: Confirmed
- Source: Stocktwits - https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/arthur-hayes-says-back-up-the-truck-and-buy-crypto-treasury-buybacks/cZYknRTRJ8p