U.S. midterm elections

The U.S. midterm elections take place on November 3, 2026, and the crypto market is watching how bitcoin (BTC) behaves around the vote. Historically, major bear-market bottoms for BTC have arrived shortly after midterm elections, though this year's price path may differ.

What is happening

With the election days away, bitcoin is entering a period that has coincided with significant cycle lows in the past. BTC bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, each shortly after the preceding midterms. Those lows came roughly 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.

This cycle looks different so far. Bitcoin's lowest price of the year, $57,850, was recorded on July 1, about 125 days before the election. By October 22 the price had recovered to around $81,455, roughly 40% above that low. In earlier cycles, BTC also showed weakness in the run-up to the vote, falling about 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and about 37% before the 2022 vote.

Technology stocks show a similar but less consistent pattern. The Invesco QQQ Trust fell roughly 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low, much of it after election day, and dropped 17% in the three months before the 2022 vote. In 2014, however, it gained 17% over the six months before the midterms. Over the past 30 days, bitcoin and QQQ are both down roughly 6%. Over 90 days, bitcoin is up 26% versus a 3% gain for QQQ, which pulled back after an all-time high of $762.86 on October 6.

Why it matters

For holders and traders, the midterms are a reference point because of the historical overlap between election timing and BTC cycle bottoms. The fact that this year's low arrived in July, well ahead of the vote, raises the question of whether the usual post-midterm bottom pattern will repeat at all.

The comparison with QQQ suggests that bitcoin's midterm-related weakness in past cycles reflects its own market cycles more consistently than any direct election effect. Past behavior is a historical observation, not a forecast, and the election itself is only one of several macro factors in play.

Key details

• Date: November 3, 2026
• Project: United States federal government
• Coins: BTC
• Category: Macro Event
• Status: Confirmed
• Source: CoinDesk, "Bitcoin approaches midterms as July low challenges historical cycle pattern" (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/23/bitcoin-approaches-midterms-as-july-low-challenges-historical-cycle-pattern)