FOMC interest rate decision

The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision on 28 October 2026. The outcome is closely watched by Bitcoin (BTC) traders and other risk-asset markets.

What is happening

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce its rate decision on 28 October 2026. It is the next major scheduled macro event for markets after the US CPI release on 14 October.

The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September 2026. The vote was 12 to 0, and the statement said "Inflation remains elevated." Markets are now weighing the risk of another hike. MUFG Research noted that the median dot for the end of 2026 rose to 4.125%, and it expects the Fed to pause in October and hike again in December.

The macro backdrop is mixed. US headline CPI rose 3.4% year on year in August, while core CPI eased to 2.4%. Energy prices were up 16.3% over the year. September payrolls rose by only 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2%. Bitcoin traded near $83,500 on 12 October, about 34% below its October 2025 record of $126,198.

Why it matters

Bitcoin has often reacted to changes in rate expectations. Higher real yields and a firmer dollar have tended to weigh on it, while a softer tone from the Fed could ease that pressure. The September hike and the hawkish market narrative have been cited among the factors behind recent choppy trading.

For holders and traders, the decision, the accompanying statement and any new projections can shift expectations for the rest of the year. Recent price action also shows that reactions to macro data can fade quickly. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows in early October, which adds to the sensitivity around the event. This description is informational and is not financial advice.

Key details

• Date: 28 October 2026
• Project: Federal Reserve
• Coins: BTC
• Category: Macro Event
• Status: Confirmed
• Source: Admirals, BTCUSD Bitcoin analysis, October 2026 (admiralmarkets.com)